Anticipatory action and resilience in the Sahel pastoral region: Geoethical considerations in exploring the potential of coupling a regional early warning system with simulation modelling as a semi-qualitative case study in the development sector

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Francesc Bellaubi Fava
Erwann Flllol

Abstract

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning have been taking an increasing role in analysing and monitoring socioeconomic vulnerability, especially regarding food systems in relation to geohazards. These methods require a large amount of data that are not always available at the field level, nor are they exempt from bias. Instead, more empirical qualitative approaches, such as case studies, seem more appropriate when analysing human-geosphere intersections. Therefore, efforts need to be made to establish how a case study approach can better inform AI and machine learning, what is the added value, and how do decision makers avoid missing important developments in anticipatory action.
The case study approach may help current AI methods to make them more reliable and better; hence, there is interest in benefitting from them. Case studies are suitable for explaining complexity through data triangulation. At the same time, they allow a quick rate of return in terms of understanding complex interrelations between humans and nature, particularly when related to climate change and conflict risk assessments. Furthermore, they can be used together with machine learning methods to calibrate the validity of results and can, especially, be used as training data in machine learning. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, case studies bring transparency to scientific methods because they are not an extractive method, but apply iterative heuristics recognising the users’ experience and giving legitimacy to results; in turn, it is necessary to ensure impact and durability of decisions in the humanitarian and development sector. However, case studies are labour intensive and, therefore, it is only possible to have a limited number of case studies that serve to inform extrapolation methods using AI and machine learning techniques.
This paper makes a conceptual review of the, as yet, unresolved inter-linkages of risk, vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation concepts, suggesting a georisks adaptive governance framework considering geoethical principles. Furthermore, it provides an example of how to apply this framework by coupling an early warning system in the Sahel region with systems dynamic modelling under a case study approach in order to observe the impact of adaptation strategies in relation to cultural resilience in food systems in the development and humanitarian sector.

Article Details

How to Cite
Bellaubi Fava, F. and Flllol, E. (2025) “Anticipatory action and resilience in the Sahel pastoral region: Geoethical considerations in exploring the potential of coupling a regional early warning system with simulation modelling as a semi-qualitative case study in the development sector”, JOURNAL OF GEOETHICS AND SOCIAL GEOSCIENCES, 1(1), pp. 1–36. doi:10.13127/jgsg-47.
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Author Biographies

Francesc Bellaubi Fava, Silene Association, Catalonia, Spain; Universidad Iberoamericana, Puebla, Mexico

Francesc Bellaubi Fava (geologist and mining tech. eng.) has more than 27 years professional experience providing technical assistance to development organizations and international agencies, NGOs, and research institutions from different countries in the Americas, Africa, and Asia-Pacific on georesources governance and environmental geology. PhD in Natural Sciences (Institute for Environmental Systems Research in University of Osnabrück, Germany), MSc. in agricultural studies (International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies, Montpellier, France), and former research fellow at South Ural State University (Russia). B.A. on religious sciences (Institute of Religious Sciences Barcelona, Spain). Current research on geoethics with a focus on political geotheology. Member of Silene Association, a non-profit association based in Catalonia aimed at the study, dissemination and promotion of the spiritual and intangible cultural heritage values inherent in Nature, particularly in relation to the conservation of nature and natural protected areas.

Erwann Flllol, GIS and remote sensing expert

Erwann Fillol is an expert in remote sensing and geographic information system. With a background in physical science, he holds a MSc degree in climatology from Grenoble University in France and a PhD degree in remote sensing from Sherbrooke University in Canada. After a postdoctoral position at the Institute of Agronomy INRAE in Avignon, France, he was recruited by ACF to develop an early warning system using real time remote sensing data, used since 2007 over West Africa Sahelian area. He was then working on different projects for development among them one with IRD in Bamako, Mali, following tree cover over Malian Gourma, and IRD in Cayenne, France, for the mapping of solar potential for photovoltaic energy over Guyana Shield. Today, he is the Surveillance and Data Analysis Regional Advisor at the Regional Office for West and Central Africa of ACF, in charge of the Pastoral Early Warning System PEWS used to monitor the pastoral situation throughout seasons.

How to Cite

Bellaubi Fava, F. and Flllol, E. (2025) “Anticipatory action and resilience in the Sahel pastoral region: Geoethical considerations in exploring the potential of coupling a regional early warning system with simulation modelling as a semi-qualitative case study in the development sector”, JOURNAL OF GEOETHICS AND SOCIAL GEOSCIENCES, 1(1), pp. 1–36. doi:10.13127/jgsg-47.

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